QT: Don’t Get Too Fixated on an Inexact Science

Become a Patron!

Predicting the future is a fool’s errand.

None of us know what tomorrow will bring. Yet all of us, to one extent or another, make plans for tomorrow based on predictions and assumptions.

Now, to be clear, I’m not saying we should never plan for or predict the future.

We just need to remember that prognostication is an inexact science.

As such, we need to stay open to the idea that saiid predictions might be wrong.

Weather Forecasts, Anyone?

Maybe the most obvious example of what I’m talking about is predicting the weather.

Meteorology is science, no doubt.

But we have to remember that forecasting future weather falls into the category of inexact science.

In a lot of cases, the forecast of the weather tends to be pretty close.

Not perfect, but close.

The problem we have is when we take a forecast as gospel, and end up flabbergasted when things don’t shake out exactly as predicted.

Race Predictors: Inexact Science

I feel like race predictions, in all of their various forms, are an inexact science at best.

Yet, many runners treat them as gospel.

I’ve long been completely dismissive of race predictors, given how ridiculous my numbers often were.

Case in point, a decade ago I ran a sub-20 5k.

According to most race predictors, that meant I was good for a marathon in the 3:20 range.

But my views on race predictors changed when I talked to Nick Gornick on the podcast a while back.

His view is that a race predictor gives you an idea of what is possible, provided you train diligently for the longer race and everything goes right on race day.

So it gives you an idea of what you might expect, but it’s not at all a guarantee?

Sounds like an inexact science to me.

Don’t Lose Sight of the Inexact

So when it’s all said an done, am I saying you should never check the weather forecast or a race predictor?

What I’m saying is that you need to remember the inexactness of both situations.

Situations are dynamic. Things change. Life happens.

As such, make sure you always keep in mind the fact that an inexact science is anything but a sure thing.

Pace predictors are, at best, an inexact science. So don't treat them as gospel. #runchat Share on X

Do You Use Any Types of Pace Calculators or Other Predictors?

Want to Support the Continued Growth & Production of the Show?

Check out the support page for ideas and suggestions of ways you can help me grow the show. And remember, not all support involves money. Some of the best ways you can show your support are 100% free.

Subscribe to the Show

Never miss another episode of the Diz Runs With podcast by subscribing to the show, and for my fellow Apple fans out there, it’s never been easier now that the podcast app is native on the new operating system. iPhone/iPod/iPad users click here. Android users click here. SoundCloud users click here.

Please Give Me Some Feedback!

Take the 6 question listener survey to help me shape the future of this podcast.

Register for a Free Race Training Plan

Every month, I’m giving away a FREE training plan for the race of your choice. For details/information, and to sign up, just click here.

Join The Tribe!

There’s always room for more members of the tribe! Both the Facebook group and the email group provide opportunities that can’t be found anywhere else. The Facebook group is still small, but it is a great way to connect with fellow runners and foster community amongst like-minded individuals. The email group is THE way to stay up to date about future guests on the show, as well as getting some other freebies and offers that aren’t available to anyone else. If you’ve got questions about either/both, just let me know!